The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Her district stretches more than 230 miles across (about the distance from D.C. to New York) from remote beach communities on the Pacific Coast to timber towns in the Cascade mountains, and south past dairy and berry farms to the rapidly growing city of Vancouver. This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. Market data provided by Factset. The states had divergent results but shared a few key things in common. History tells us. Political scientists know that the president's party loses seats in midterms. It wont be true. Add FiveThirtyEights model into the mix, and we see handicappers predicting that the GOP will gain between one and 35 seats, with most emphasizing gains in the twenties. / February 1, 2023. WELCOME TO THE WORLD Elise Flick, global comms director for Vice World News, and Nick Hatcher, senior publishing editor for speed and trending at the Wall Street Journal, welcomed Charlie Bruce Hatcher on Nov. 1. More in 2022 Election. RON DeSANTIS played out in Florida on Sunday as the two held dueling rallies. How do you see yourself creating an understanding of the middle class in that caucus and getting middle-class laws passed? The challenge after Tuesday is to keep two things in mind: There can be a massive change in policy direction (the House flipping) with only a small change in the electorate (less than 5% of House seats changing hands). But unfounded accusations of fraud and other malfeasance continue to tear at the machinery of U.S. elections. Its going to be a disaster for Social Security and Medicare. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. In the upcoming gubernatorial race, they were undecided, frustrated by how Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer had handled the pandemic. For the White House, that would be just the beginning of the hurdles.. U.S. President Joe Biden discusses the 2022 U.S. midterm election results during a news conference in the State Dining Room at the White House in Washington, November 9, 2022. Santos also conceded hed embellished his familys Jewish history, having previously claimed his mother was Jewish and his maternal grandparents escaped the Holocaust during World War II. The duo also got the deets on how Trump landed on Ron DeSanctimonious as a new nickname for the governor: some people close to him said the decision to cast Mr. DeSantis as hypocritically pious solidified itself after the governors team released a video Friday aimed at infusing his candidacy with a sense of the divine., Our colleagues Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout write from Miami that Trump largely held his fire on Sunday night. DESANTIS TOUTS WIN FOR THE AGES AS HE AND RUBIO SCORE BIG VICTORIES, SHADING PURPLE FLORIDA RED. All Rights Reserved. we are still at a stage in the 2022 election cycle when the names of many of the horses aren't even known. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. A veteran Georgia Republican operative who is slated to be chief of staff for incoming Rep. Mike Collins was arrested last month for allegedly kicking a dog. Last election 36.35%, 104 seats 38.14%, 80 seats 18.3%, 37 seats . The "MAGA hangover" is real. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. Court cases typically move at a glacial pace, but this one lurched forward at a furious speed: Nkwonta filed the lawsuit on Monday at 10:08 p.m.; the Republican National Committee asked to join the case for Georgia sometime Tuesday; and at 10:55 a.m. on Wednesday, the judge ordered everyone to come to Atlanta for an in-person hearing less than 48 hours later. After a lackluster 2021, the price of gold increases to above $2,000/ounce in anticipation of and, subsequently, in . National Review Online With the Republican Party projected to win a slim majority in the US House of Representatives and Nancy Pelosi stepping down from the Democratic . Please make sure that the email address you typed in is valid, NYTs Michael Bender and Patricia Mazzei write, WSJs Vivian Salama and Michael Gordon report, View all our political and policy newsletters, Trump calls for contest to create futuristic Freedom Cities. Chris Christie said of Donald Trump. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. You deserve to hear our thinking. After years of assembling the annual worst predictions list for POLITICO Magazine, Ive come to understand a difference, subtle but distinct, between bad predictions and ones that are truly awful. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Tuesdays results show the public wants to turn the page on complete Democratic control of Washington. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. / February 9, 2023. There's just less attention, which I think actually frees her up to focus on excelling and not have to worry about the relentless scrutiny., Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, seen here speaking to supporters on election night, lost his race to Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro by 15 percentage points. 2022 will be great for art, spiritually and Hollywood When it comes to key themes and overall mood in 2022, we'll be feeling more connected to ourselves and each other. I am flabbergasted at the lack of outrage from Ronna about this, Oscar Brock, a national committeeman from Tennessee, wrote in one of a series of private email threads obtained by POLITICO. Who will win the midterms in 2022? The final 2022 Senate ratings fromElections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. A handful of Republican National Committee members denounced former President Donald Trump, with one pushing for fellow members and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel to forcefully condemn his decision to host a pre-Thanksgiving dinner with antisemites. In a review of several political science models of how Democrats should fare in 2022 given fundamentals like the state of the economy and JOE BIDENs approval rating, Vanderbilts John Sides notes that Democrats expected losses should be about 40-45 seats, which is well above the range predicted by major handicappers. Dont miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 2 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 3 seats. Lawmakers of both parties made it easier to vote by expanding availability of mail and early voting in a politically mixed group of states: Vermont, Kentucky and Nevada. Sign up for EPPC Briefly! Bruised egos are commonplace in politics. GOP officials in Pennsylvania are also in the process of launching initiatives aimed at persuading more of their supporters to vote by mail a method many of them had previously criticized, challenged in court and tried to repeal legislatively and healing intraparty divides across the states diverse regions. Mayes and Hamadeh were not in court during the hearing. Read the analysis>. Michigan Midterm Election 2022, a state guide to help plan your vote, including key dates, voting info, and Primary results for Republican and Democratic candidates as the countdown to November . He has said that he will not caucus with either party if he wins. Election data from a trio of states that dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, either early or by mail, demonstrate that the voting methods that were decidedly uncontroversial before Trump do not clearly help either party. Hochul and Adams face major test in 2023 on shared vision for housing, crime, Where woke goes to die: DeSantis, with eye toward 2024, launches second term, New data shows the folly of Trumps crusade against early voting, Oops! Santos admitted he hadnt directly worked for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and had not graduated from Baruch College, nor from any institution of higher learning.. With the end of October nearing, here are the predictions for each state with those Senate seats up for election, per FiveThirtyEight. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. Senate Seats By State Thousands of people filled the standing-room-only space, which had increased security and huge sets of bleachers that arent normally featured at such events. Choose . Alaskas Fisheries Are Collapsing. DeSantis gave his inaugural address in front of the Florida historic Capitol building in downtown Tallahassee, but the event came with much grander trappings than traditional inaugural events including DeSantis' first one four years ago. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. For Kamala Harris and her aides, the new year and a new Congress has brought a sense of optimism. But in an election fueled by inflation, other issues struggle to break through., RALSTONS NEVADA PREDICTIONS Crystal ball says Cortez Masto hangs on, Sisolak doesnt and Dems retain two of three House seats, by the Nevada Independents Jon Ralston. HEADS UP National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN has engaged in recent months in confidential conversations with top aides to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and warn Moscow against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, WSJs Vivian Salama and Michael Gordon report. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Eager to get back home, and savoring his courtroom victory, Nkwonta turns to the flight attendant. She currently is managing director at Bully Pulpit Interactive. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Vermont, Kentucky and Nevada dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, and neither party gained an edge. The Constitution, the Courts, and the Culture. Election Day is finally here. Former President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday, Nov. 6, in Miami. Customize your map by changing one or more states. Funding to support Ukraine could dry up, or at least be slashed. Over a steak salad rare Gluesenkamp Perez gave a bracing critique of her partys deeply out-of-touch approach to the middle class, why the partys leaders seem to be making that problem worse, not better, and how closing the widening gap between the partys brain trust and its blue-collar roots can be accomplished by reconnecting Americans with our lost ability to fix your own shit.. The final2022 Senate ratings from Politico. Inflation, crime, progressive attempts at overreach and a general sense that President Biden is not up to the job will likely deliver a surprisingly large victory to Republicans. November 8, 2022. Their home county, Macomb, had voted for President Barack Obama twice and President Donald Trump twice. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely disproportionately Democrats out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nations suburbs and Sun Belt. Across the country this year, candidates rose to the top of the ticket with a modern set of political qualities: pugilistic loyalty, polarizing rhetoric, the skills to command a television camera and commandeer a room. Democrats are behind in several districts needed to secure control of Congress' lower chamber for another two years. This was the first election affected by the 2022 U.S. redistricting that followed the 2020 U.S. census. Wes Allens abandonment of ERIC illustrates how ideas stemming from the falsehood of a stolen presidential election remain in the bloodstream of the American democratic system. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday formally kicked off his second term in office as he looks to his political future. Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio blew the doors off in the Sunshine State. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. A leader in the fight to help combat the opioid epidemic. "The margin of victory as reported by the official canvass is 17,117 votes beyond the scope of a statutorily required recount," Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson stated in his order. ), Wishcasting: When you base a prediction less on a sober reading of what is likely to happen than on what youd personally like to happen. The success of past predictions can be checked via our Search box. or redistributed. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. The unofficial guide to official Washington. Walgreens wont distribute abortion pills in states where GOP AGs object, Washingtons Favorite Republican Is Making All the Right Moves, See all the latest midterm election results. | John Locher/AP Photo. Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. American politics has been a stalemate between the two parties for nearly 30 years. October 21:Iowa moves from Safe to Likely Republican. Republicans said it is. The Worst Political Predictions of 2022, George Santos' Democratic opponent calls for congressional probe as party plots district comeback, Democrat wins Arizona attorney general race after recount, Santos scandal has no parallel: top crisis communicators, Republican Jewish Coalition denounces Santos for lies about his credentials, Arizona judge rejects Lake's election lawsuit, Why Marc Elias Wants to Babysit the Republican Party, state holiday that once honored Robert E. Lee, long history of suppressing the Black vote, THE central issue: How the fall of Roe v. Wade shook the 2022 election, GOP operative who allegedly kicked a dog hired as top aide to new congressman, Phillips resigned as Donald Trumps Georgia state director, Christie blasts Trump over Georgia Senate loss, Private RNC member emails reveal anger at Trump, frustration with McDaniels response to him, How Demographic Shifts Fueled by Covid Delivered Midterm Wins for Democrats, Trump calls for contest to create futuristic Freedom Cities. His first official act upon taking office earlier this month was unusual: The Republican fulfilled a campaign promise by withdrawing Alabama from an obscure interstate compact that helps states maintain voter rolls, citing data security concerns. She no longer is tied to the whims of an evenly split Senate, where she had been called to cast more than two dozen tie-breaking votes. He previously was legislative director for Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and is a Henry Waxman alum. "A court setting such a margin aside, as far as the Court is able to determine, has never been done in the history of the United States. The working-class must stay a Republican group in order to combat Bidens faux America First rhetoric, The Washington Post Aug. 8, 2022. THE 30,000-FOOT VIEW After a Life of Struggle, Biden Faces One More Inflection Point, by NYTs Peter Baker in Albuquerque, N.M.: Mr. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. The early votes, which according to official figures skewed for Warnock, would also help the pastor-turned-senator expand a Senate majority that, by all historical indicators, Democrats were poised to lose. The final 2022 Senate race ratings fromCook Political Report. It appears the 2022 cycle will follow suit. But the driver was an African American gentleman. / February 9, 2023. But on that Friday, crammed in a narrow Embraer 175 plane, the blue light of his laptop bouncing off the overhead compartment, Nkwonta doesnt know any of this, that Warnocks win would be the ultimate outcome of his lawsuit. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast. It was the kind of conversation women everywhere were having with their mothers, sisters, daughters and friends. How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed Feb 2, 2023; Congress. December 5:Georgia runoff is rated Leans Democratic. Both Vermont and Nevada saw split-ticket voters decide statewide races, by a gaping margin in Vermont and a narrow one in Nevada. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo, No longer tied to the Senate, the vice president feels comfort and flexibility as she hits the road on abortion, climate and other issues. Our country moved rightward in a direction that is discernible, yet not dramatically. Can She Fix Congress Elitism Problem? Tom Brenner . SPOTTED: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and husband George Akerlof having an early Saturday lunch at Petes New Haven Style Apizza in Tenleytown. White House aides believe the GOP would likely be as obstructionist as possible. I cover so many local races that I had to do an accompanying San Francisco story. ", Lake's lawsuit filed Dec. 9 alleged that illegal votes were cast in the Nov. 8 midterm election and stated that [t]he tabulators rejection of thousands of ballots set off a domino chain of electoral improprieties.. Perhaps a good marker for measuring how well the Republicans do is 235, which is the number of seats Democrats won in 2018 (and would represent a net gain of 22). After a New York Times investigation, the congressman-elect told the New York Post that he had indeed fabricated elements of his background, including his Jewish heritage. Choose potential paths to a Senate majority in 2022. Find out how Emergent perceives, prepares, and protects. WEEKEND WEDDING Jim Warren, a government affairs, strategy and development analyst at Martin Marietta, and Madeleine Fennell, marketing and accounting manager at Emily Daws Textiles, recently got married in Charleston, S.C.. Pic Another pic SPOTTED: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Jo Bishop, Saat Alety, Shay Hawkins, Alex Smith, John Partin, Lucas West, Kirsten West, Jude Al-hmoud and Clara Cargile. For decades, Democratic Party leaders have relied on winning a heavy number of Latino voters to power them to office. But rarely has a rift at the top of a party spilled so fully into view at such a pivotal moment, NYTs Michael Bender and Patricia Mazzei write. U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on what he calls the "continued battle for the Soul of the Nation" in front of Independence Hall at Independence National Historical Park, Philadelphia, U.S., September 1, 2022. We may get caught up in some of the over-interpretation ourselves. Kari Lake, who, during the campaign, would not commit to accepting the results of her race, as she repeated former President Donald Trumps false claim that the 2020 election was rigged. What is Michael Moore's prediction for the 2022 Midterm Elections? Indeed, we would narrowly favor Republicans to win in Nevada and Wisconsin, though both races remain extremely tight. This combination of both parties being resistant to change while also being highly competitive with each other raises the stakes of politics and makes them more explosive, political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck write in The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy ($29.95), which documented how seemingly significant convulsions in national politics, such as the Covid pandemic and the BLM protests, did not translate into major changes in overall voting patterns, though were enough to dislodge Trump. Amid a slate of failed gubernatorial pickup attempts, this was the only governorship Republicans flipped in the 2022 elections, as well as the only governorship in a state carried by one party in the prior presidential election to flip to the other . Can the Democrats finally overcome the | by Sasha Jones | Politically Speaking | Medium Write 500 Apologies, but something went wrong on our end. Because theyre not part of it. If this trend continues across the country, it threatens to upend a major linchpin of future Democratic paths to victory. Copy Code. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 in the State Dining Room of the White House on July 28, 2022 in Washington, DC. Vice President Kamala Harris waves during a Martin Luther King Jr. day of service project at George Washington University, Monday, Jan. 16, 2023, in Washington. 40,114,753 early votes cast as of 3:33 p.m. Sunday, per the United States Elections Project. The Economist predicts that Democrats will keep the Senate and Republicans will gain a slight majority in the House.. And perhaps, after 2 years of Democrats passing trillions in new spending and increasing inflation, thats a good thing. | AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster. | Frank Franklin II/AP Photo. 3 Questions We Have About George Santos Jan 5, 2023; Congress. Accidental opioid overdoses can happen to anyone, anywhere, at any time. If that firewall collapses, they will need to scramble to find those vote elsewhere. Nevada also looks promising with Adam Laxalt and Republican congressional candidates on the verge of a sweep. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have repeatedly said they can always count on one thing: each other. Anyone who takes prescription or illicit opioids is potentially at risk of experiencing an accidental life-threatening or fatal opioid overdose. Its a middle-class district where about a quarter of residents are college graduates, and the median income is just under the national median household income of $70,784. The two parties keep drifting further apart ideologically, so they increasingly see every election as an existential threat to the future of the country. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. But Democrats and Republicans are also closely matched when it comes to voter support, which means control of the House, Senate, and White House is always up for grabs. RICK SCOTT, R-Fla., the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, declined Sunday to say whether he would run for majority leader if Republicans gain control of the Senate in the midterm elections. BIDENS MONDAY:9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the Presidents Daily Brief.4 p.m.: Biden will participate in virtual receptions for the DNC.5:45 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart the White House en route to Bowie, Md.7 p.m.: The Bidens will participate in a rally for Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate WES MOORE.8:25 p.m.: The Bidens will depart Bowie to return to the White House.Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:45 p.m.VP KAMALA HARRIS MONDAY (all times Eastern):4:10 p.m.: The VP will deliver remarks at a political event at UCLA.5 p.m.: Harris will join a virtual political event. We were also fortunate to get a preview of both DAVID WASSERMANs final House forecast over at The Cook Political Report and KYLE KONDIKs final House forecast over at Sabatos Crystal Ball. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. , Race has played a central role in the Wisconsin senatorial election, which is among the closest in the country and could determine the partisan balance of the Senate. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 35 Senate elections in 2022. Thirty-nine state and territorial U.S. gubernatorial elections, as well as numerous state and local elections, were also contested. Mayes finished 280 votes ahead of Hamadeh, down from a lead of 511 in the original count. FINAL FORECASTS Steve Shepards final predictions were posted overnight. In 2016, he resigned as Donald Trump's Georgia state director after his criminal history was revealed. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, McDaniel claims the support of a majority of committee members, but has recently faced challenges for the chair position. US midterm elections results 2022 - live Meanwhile, Democrats set their sights on flipping New Yorks 3rd congressional district before Santos is even seated. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. The pandemic continues to haunt Donald Trump and Republicans electoral chances a political sort of long Covid. The forecast. A consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate elections based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters . A recent Wall Street Journalpoll showed just a 5-point lead for Democrats among Hispanics that's a margin that wouldve been unthinkable a decade ago. Biden has been spreading the faith across the country in recent days, undaunted by the polls and prognosticators forecasting a devastating defeat for his party in Tuesdays midterm elections. When Lloyd Cotler worked on texting programs for Hillary Clintons 2016 presidential campaign, it was a relatively new campaign frontier a blank canvas where Clintons digital staffers answered questions about voting, shared comments from Donald Trump that would enrage the Democratic base and, sometimes, asked for campaign contributions. As it is every two years, control of the House and Senate will once again be at stake in the November 2022 midterm elections, and one of the best tools we have for predicting those election. One wanted the chair to speak out. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. I predict the GOP will win the national popular vote by about 5.5 points, likely gaining between 31 and 40 House seats in the process. The highly anticipated results announced Thursday in Maricopa County Superior Court are among the last in the country to come out of Novembers election and solidified another victory for Democrats who shunned election fraud conspiracies in what used to be a solidly Republican state. He ended the story with this reveal: You know, one little point really really doesnt factor in the story at all. Every time it looks as though one party gains a lasting upper hand Democrats after 2008 and 2020, Republicans after 1994 and 2010 its legislative overreach sends it back to parity. Judge Timothy Thomason, who also announced the results of recounts in two other races, said Republican Tom Horne prevailed in the race for state superintendent of public instruction and Republican Liz Harris won a state legislative seat in the Phoenix suburbs. The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said., THE VIEW FROM KYIV Kyiv prepares for a winter with no heat, water or power, by APs Sam Mednick, THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW Russia Looks to Private Militia to Secure a Victory in Eastern Ukraine, by NYTs Andrew Higgins and Matthew Mpoke Bigg, PSAKI BOMB My Job In This Role Is To Not Guess: Jen Psakis TV Career Is Getting Off The Ground, by Vanity Fairs Charlotte Klein: The exWhite House press secretary will be breaking down the midterms Tuesday night in the MSNBC studio and has been sounding out MIKA [BRZEZINSKI], RACHEL [MADDOW], and ARI [MELBER] as she prepares to launch her own Peacock show. Every election brings with it confident predictions of some enduring new majority. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) poses for a portrait in her office on Capitol Hill on Jan. 12, 2023. Please continue reading with The Washington Post. | Mario Tama/Getty Images. But the Senate is firmly up for grabs. You can read his breakdowns of the Senate and gubernatorial races, but we want to dig into the House forecasts this morning. (REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY/File Photo), Karl Rove: In a way, it was never going to be a 'red wave'. More than 50 Democratic and Republican elected officials, campaign aides and consultants took POLITICO inside the first campaign after the Supreme Court's landmark ruling. Chris Christie walks on stage. Vanity Fair caught up with [JEN] PSAKI about her new gig and what she thinks of all the Biden 2024 chatter., MUSK READS Twitter Is Said to Delay Changes to Check Mark Badges Until After Midterms, by NYTs Ryan Mac, Kate Conger and Mike Isaac: Many Twitter users and employees raised concerns that the new pay-for-play badges could cause confusion ahead of Tuesdays elections because users could easily create verified accounts say, posing as President Biden or as lawmakers or news outlets and publishing false information about voting results which could potentially sow discord., Musk threatens to boot Twitter account impersonators, by APs Frank Bajak, These are the men running Elon Musks Twitter, by WaPos Gerrit De Vynck and Hamza Shaban, Twitter Now Asks Some Fired Workers to Please Come Back, by Bloombergs Kurt Wagner and Edward Ludlow, MOVE FAST AND BREAK THINGS Facebook Parent Meta Is Preparing to Notify Employees of Large-Scale Layoffs This Week, by WSJs Jeff Horwitz and Salvador Rodriguez. These voters are not yet Republicans, but they increasingly recognize they are not modern Democrats. But then incumbent Jamie Herrera Beutler, who had voted to impeach Donald Trump, came in third in the states open primary. And the fallout, fueled by cross-country migration and even the Covid death toll, could linger into 2024 and beyond.